Global Outlook - May 2014
The global economy is set to perform more strongly in 2014 (2.5% growth) and 2015 (2.9%) than in 2013 (2.0%). The advanced economies, led by the US (2.8% growth in2014), the UK (2.6%) and Japan (1.5%) are continuing to strengthen. However, growthis slowing in many emerging markets.
Global Risk Insights:
- The US, the UK and Japanese economies continue to strengthen.
- Concerns remain over China, threatening growth in commodity-exporting countries.
- Strengthening advanced economies could curtail capital flows to emerging markets.
- Deteriorating outlook: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Ghana, Thailand, Turkey.
- Improving prospects: Belgium, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Nigeria, UK.
- Growth is being led by the advanced economies but concerns over China, the threat of deflation and political risk remain elevated.
- While the risk of deflation has declined in line with the improved growth outlook developed economies, and in particular the euro zone, are today in a poorer position to respond.
- Growth drivers for the global economy are increasingly moving from the emerging markets to the advanced economies. Nevertheless, in the past few weeks capital flows to the emerging markets have turned positive after months of capital flight.
- The euro, sterling, the yen and Swiss franc strenghten against US dollar with US monetary policy set to last longer than thought. Meanwhile, emerging market currencies have strengthened since mid-February.
- Commodities prices will remain divergent: copper prices have fallen sharply in 2014 with further downside risk; cocoa and coffee are on track to make significant gains; and oil prices look set to remain generally stable.
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